Blue hydrogen and industrial base products: The future of fossil fuel exporters in a net-zero world

Is there a place for today's fossil fuel exporters in low-carbon future? This study explores trade channels between energy and importers using novel electricity-hydrogen-steel systems model calibrated to Norway, major natural gas producer, Germany, consumer. Under tight emission constraints, Norway can supply Germany with electricity, (blue) hydrogen, or re-import of captured CO2. Alternatively, it use hydrogen produce steel through direct reduction the world market, an export route not available other carriers due high transport costs. Although results show that imports CO2 capture is least-cost solution, avoiding local handling via blue (direct embodied steel) involves only moderately higher A robust demand would allow profitably all its production as hydrogen. However, diversification into production, one example easy-to-export industrial base products, offers effective hedge against possibility lower European demand. Looking beyond Europe, findings this are also relevant world's largest (e.g., OPEC+) developing Asia). Thus, recommended large hydrocarbon consider strategic transition diversified mix climate-neutral products.